Divergent Effects of Temperature Shocks on Interpersonal and Intergroup Conflict
w. Patrick Signoret
Existing research indicates interpersonal and intergroup conflict increase as ambient temperatures rise. Yet these types of violence have never been studied in the same context or under consistent classification. We address this gap using microdata on human conflict in Indonesia. We find interpersonal violence increases significantly with temperature, while intergroup conflict exhibits the opposite relationship. A standard deviation increase in ambient temperature, for example, increases the frequency of battery and assault by 15%. The same temperature shock decreases the intensity of insurgent fighting by 24%. These findings suggest a nuanced reevaluation of the linkages between temperature shocks and the variety of human conflict.
Related draft here.
Differential effects of temperature on intensity of interpersonal and intergroup violence