Research

Publications

1. Aid Fragmentation and Corruption. With Travers Child and Yun Xiao. Forthcoming:  Review of Economics and Statistics.

2. Courting Civilians during Conflict: Evidence from Taliban Judges in Afghanistan. With Donald Grasse and Renard Sexton.  Forthcoming: International Organization.

3. Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine. With David Van Dijcke, Mark Polyak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2023.

4. Rebel Capacity, Intelligence Gathering, and Combat Tactics. With Konstantin Sonin. American Journal of Political Science, January 2023.

5. From Social Alignment to Social Control: Reporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. With Patrick Bergemann. Sociological Science, April 2023.

6. Information Operations Increase Civilian Security Cooperation. With Konstantin Sonin. The Economic Journal, April 2022. 

7. Televising Justice during War. With Andres Uribe and Stephen Stapleton. Journal of Conflict Resolution, March 2022.

8. Unmasking Partisanship: How Polarization Influences Public Responses to Collective Risk. With Maria Milosh, Marc Painter, Konstantin Sonin, and David Van Dijcke. Journal of Public Economics, December 2021.  

9. Science Skepticism Reduces Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Policies. With Adam Brzezinski, Valentin Kecht, and David Van Dijcke. Nature Human Behavior, October 2021. 

10. Security Transitions. With Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro CL Souza, and  Oliver Vanden Eynde. American Economic Review, July 2021.

11. Poverty and Economic Dislocation Reduce Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Protocols. With Konstantin Sonin, Jesse Driscoll, and Jarnickae Wilson. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, November 2020. 

12. Insurgent Learning. With Francesco Trebbi, Eric Weese, and Andrew Shaver.  Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, September 2020. 

13.  Political and Environmental Risks Influence Migration and Human Smuggling across the Mediterranean Sea. With Kara Ross Camarena, Sarah Claudy, and Jijun Wang. PLoS One, July 2020. 

14. Places to Hide: Terrain, Ethnicity, and Political Violence. With David B. Carter and Andrew Shaver. Journal of Politics, October 2019.

15. Civilians, Control, and Collaboration during Civil Conflict. With Luke Condra. International Studies Quarterly, August 2019. 

16. Border Walls and Smuggling Spillovers. With Anna Getmansky and Guy Grossman. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, July 2019. 

17. The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence. With Luke Condra, James Long, and Andrew Shaver. American Economic Review, November 2018. 

Circulating papers and funded projects

1. Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. With Christopher Blair. Revisions requested: American Economic Review.

2. Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield Casualties, Media, and Public Support for Foreign Interventions. With Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro CL Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde. Conditionally accepted: American Journal of Political Science.

3. Economic Competition and Civilian Support for Rebel Reintegration. With Amanda Kennard and Konstantin Sonin. Revisions requested: International Organization.

4. Political Economy of Crisis Response. With Arda Gitmez and Konstantin Sonin. Revisions requested: Journal of Politics.

5. Conceptualizing and Measuring Territorial Control in Civil Wars. With Maria Ballesteros and Christopher Blair. Proposal accepted: World Politics.

6. Information Operations, Territorial Control, and Perceptions of Power During Conflict. With Tamar Mitts and Asfandyar Mir.

7. The Economic Origins and Consequences of Territorial Control. (see Territorial Control page)  

Grant: BFI Data Grant, 2021-2022.

8. Isolation and Insurrection: How Partisanship and Political Geography Fueled January 6, 2021. With David Van Dijcke, Konstantin Sonin.

9. Propaganda during Armed Conflict: Evidence from the Islamic State in Afghanistan. With Travers Child, Kai Gehring, Sarah Langlotz, and Rossella De Sabbatta.

10. Civilian Abuse, Counterinsurgent Operations, and Wartime Informing. With Luke Condra, Jacob Shapiro, and Andrew Shaver. 

11. The Politics of Proxy Warfare: Evidence from Ceasefire Violations in the Ukraine. With Natalie Ayers, Bakdaulet Baitan, George Beknazar, Christopher Blair, and Konstantin Sonin.

12. Economic Shocks and Rebel Tactics.  

13. Red lines and Negotiables: How Exposure to Wartime Violence Influences Support for Peace Set- tlements in Ukraine. With Thomas Zeitzoff, Anna Getmansky, Tolga Sinmazdemir, Sasha Jason, Nadiya Kostyuk. 

Grant: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID grant no. 2226883.

14. Corruption and Political Mobilization: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. With Luke Condra.